Raising the education participation age to 18 in England – has it worked?

This paper presents the findings from a mixed-methods exploration of the impact of the raising of the education participation age to 18 in England (RPA). Unlike previous cohorts who could leave education aged 16, young people in England starting the final year of compulsory schooling in September 2012 were required to remain in some form of education until the end of the school year in which they turned 17, and those starting the final year in September 2013 were required to remain until they reached their 18^th birthday. Using this policy change as a natural experiment, we first use linked administrative data to examine the impact on participation, retention and qualifications, before going on to examine the policy’s effect on early labour market outcomes.

We find that the initial phase of the RPA (to 17) increased participation in year 12 by around half a percentage point (from a base of 84.5% participating), largely driven by an increase in young people remaining in school. The full RPA to 18 however did not maintain the overall increase in participation, as while school attendance increased, attendance at further education colleges decreased, leaving overall participation unchanged. Consistent with increased school attendance, the policy saw an increase in the proportion of each cohort gaining a C or above in English GCSE by age 18. The policy also led to a reduction in the proportion of each cohort who were persistently NEET (not in education, employment or training) – indicating that participation for at least some of the year increased. Further ahead, the RPA is associated with improved labour market outcomes at age 20: an additional 10-25 days employed during the year, a reduction in the average number of days on out-of-work benefits by 5-10 days per year, and an increase in annual earnings amongst the employed of between 0.5% and 3%.

The quantitative analysis is supported by the findings from six case studies undertaken in different local areas around the country, engaging with local authority officials, education and training providers, charities, employers and young people themselves. In total,193 participants took part, 116 of whom were young people impacted by the policy. The local stakeholders consistently highlighted the issues of the lack of data to track and map the young NEETs hampering efforts to re-engage them, along with a lack of funding for provision of entry level/level 1 programmes. Young people highlighted the variable quality of careers and education information, advice and guidance, the lack of a diverse post-16 offer, mental health and other related barriers to participation, and the perverse financial incentives that work against efforts to expand apprenticeships, simultaneously leading to increased uptake of unsuitable courses in further education. The paper concludes with some recommendations for future policy in this space.

Presented by Professor Matt Dickson