Key climate temperature goals could be too high

The Ambition on Melting Ice (AMI) group of countries and researchers say the most recent science looking at the world’s ice sheets, glaciers and permafrost indicates that a global temperature rise of 2°C above pre-industrial levels is too high to prevent devastating and irreversible impacts of climate change.

This was the upper limit set by world leaders in 2015 under the Paris Agreement on climate change.

The group also warns that even the lower 1.5°C limit agreed in Paris could be too high and has called for greater cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

Bonn Climate Change Conference

The AMI group met with other interested governments and stakeholders ahead of the Bonn Climate Change Conference where countries are finalising the first evaluation of the Paris climate agreement pledges.

Durham’s Professor Chris Stokes – who recently led research looking at how the worst effects of global warming on the giant East Antarctic Ice Sheet might be avoided if temperature rises stay below the 2°C limit – addressed the event.

“On the edge of a cliff”

Professor Stokes said: “We are on the edge of a cliff.

“The latest science over the last two to three years tells us the threshold beyond which ice loss from the Antarctic will become irreversible over centuries to millennia is much lower than we thought.

“If we keep on as we are now, we could trigger runaway feedbacks within the next few decades, with sea level rise from ice sheets accelerating much, much faster than we feared.”

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says up to 3.5 billion people live in regions highly vulnerable to even moderate sea level rise from ice sheets or at least seasonally dependent on water from glaciers and snow.

Find out more

• Learn more about Professor Chris Stokes and read about his 2022 research into the East Antarctic Ice Sheet.

• The 20-nation Ambition on Melting Ice group, formed at the COP27 climate conference, includes not just polar and mountain regions (Iceland and Chile co-chair), but Liberia, Vanuatu and Senegal – all highly vulnerable to sea-level rise from melting glaciers and ice sheets. The group is supported by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative, a network of senior policy experts and researchers working with governments and organisations to create, shape and implement initiatives designed to preserve as much of the Earth’s cryosphere as possible.

• Countries are meeting at the Bonn Climate Change Conference to finalise the first evaluation of Paris climate agreement pledges – known as the Global Stocktake.

• Durham University’s Centre for Sustainable Development Law and Policy has also made a submission to the Global Stocktake to stress the criticality of limiting the global temperature increase to 1.5°C to avoid potentially irreversible global impacts of climate change for the present and for future generations. This is a joint submission with the Centre for International Law, National University of Singapore and the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative.

• Durham’s Department of Geography is ranked joint 14th in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2023. Visit our Geography webpages to find out more. 

• Our Law School is a world leader in legal education. We are ranked 5th in The Complete University Guide 2023 and 46th in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2023, up from 49th in 2022. Visit our Law School webpages to learn more.

Banner image: A field camp on the surface of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet, Princess Elizabeth Land (photograph: Nerilie Abram).