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MATH3071: DECISION THEORY III

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Type Open
Level 3
Credits 20
Availability Available in 2024/2025
Module Cap
Location Durham
Department Mathematical Sciences

Prerequisites

  • Calculus I (Maths Hons) (MATH1081) or Calculus I (MATH1061), Probability I (MATH1597) and Linear Algebra I (Maths Hons) (MATH1091) or Linear Algebra I (MATH1071).

Corequisites

  • None.

Excluded Combinations of Modules

  • None.

Aims

  • To describe the basic ingredients of decision theory, for individuals and for groups, and to apply the theory to a variety ofinteresting and important problems.

Content

  • Introduction to decision analysis: utility.
  • Uncertainty.
  • Statistical decision theory: Bayesdecisions.
  • Bargaining.
  • Game theory.
  • Influence diagrams, group decisions and socialchoice.

Learning Outcomes

Subject-specific Knowledge:

  • By the end of the module students will: be able to solvenovel and/or complex problems in Decision Theory.
  • have a systematic and coherent understanding of theoreticalmathematics in the field of Decision Theory.
  • have acquired coherent body of knowledge of these subjectsdemonstrated through one or more of the following topic areas:Formulating decision problems and solving decision trees.
  • Utility, value of money, multi-attribute utility.
  • Use of data in decision making, statistical decisiontheory.
  • Sequential decision making.
  • Game theory, including two-person zero-sum games.
  • Bargaining, including Nash' theory.
  • Group decisions and social choice.

Subject-specific Skills:

  • In addition students will have specialised mathematicalskills in the following areas which can be used with minimal guidance: Modelling.

Key Skills:

Modes of Teaching, Learning and Assessment and how these contribute to the learning outcomes of the module

  • Lectures demonstrate what is required to be learned and theapplication of the theory to practical examples.
  • Assignments for self-study develop problem-solving skills andenable students to test and develop their knowledge andunderstanding.
  • Formatively assessed assignments provide practice in theapplication of logic and high level of rigour as well as feedback forthe students and the lecturer on students' progress.
  • The end-of-year examination assesses the knowledge acquiredand the ability to solve predictable and unpredictableproblems.

Teaching Methods and Learning Hours

ActivityNumberFrequencyDurationTotalMonitored
Lectures422 per week for in Michaelmas and Epiphany; 2 in Easter1 Hour42 
Problems Classes8Fortnightly in each of terms 1 and 21 Hour8 
Preparation and Reading150 
Total200 

Summative Assessment

Component: ExaminationComponent Weighting: 100%
ElementLength / DurationElement WeightingResit Opportunity
Written examination3 Hours100 

Formative Assessment

Eight assignments to be submitted.

More information

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