IHRR Forecasting Laboratory

The IHRR Forecasting Laboratory aims to advance our understanding of Forecasting, Foresight and strategic Planning methods and systems, to help make better Decisions in the context of Risk and Uncertainty driven by natural and anthropogenic activities. 

Broader Scope of the Lab

The IHRR forecasting lab comprises senior and junior academics and PGR (PhD & DBA) students with experience in various sectors. The forecasting lab facilitates interdisciplinary collaboration to advance the area of forecasting and beyond.

Our members have experience in the energy sector (oil and gas, hydropower), banking sector (ESG, FinTech & Risk), legal industry (corporate & LegalTech), leadership in different types of organisations and, of course, forecasting.

We hold weekly meetings to present our research, create research proposals to obtain funding and discuss various issues we might face in a collaborative environment.

We are open to collaboration with external partners. Please get in touch by emailing Professor Konstantinos Nikolopoulos at kostas.nikolopoulos@durham.ac.uk

Impact

Professor Nikolopoulos’ research won the Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO) award for the Best EJOR Paper 2023 on Theory and Methodology: Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Sushil Punia, Andreas Schäfers, Christos Tsinopoulos, Chrysovalantis Vasilakis. Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions.

Professor Nikolopoulos’ research has been cited by academics and implemented by practitioners. The most notable example is Uber. Uber has applied Nikolopoulos’ Theta models worldwide since 2017 for their financial forecasts with an efficiency saving of approximately USD 750,000,000 (04-2020) per annum.

You can find more information on this by clicking on the following links:

https://www.uber.com/en-GR/blog/forecasting-introduction/

https://www.bangor.ac.uk/research/research-themes/arts-humanities-business/theta-method

Projects

The lab director has successfully obtained funding (along with colleagues from other European institutions) to conduct cutting-edge research in Radioactivity Monitoring in Ocean Ecosystems. RAMONES offers a radical vision of science-enabled cutting-edge solutions in instrumentation and robotic sensing platforms towards a step change in Radioactivity Monitoring in Ocean Ecosystems.

For further information on the project, please use this link: https://ramones-project.eu.

Publications

Some of our most recent publications in academic journals:

Kamal Sanguri, Sabyasachi Patra, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos & Sushil Punia (2024) Intermittent demand, inventory obsolescence, and temporal aggregation forecasts, International Journal of Production Research, 62:5, 1663-1685, DOI: 10.1080/00207543.2023.2199435

Chrysovalantis Vasilakis, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, Forecasting the effective reproduction number during a pandemic: COVID-19 Rt forecasts, governmental decisions and economic implications, IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, Volume 35, Issue 1, January 2024, Pages 65–81, https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpad023

Alroomi, A., Karamatzanis, G., Nikolopoulos, K., Tilba, A., Xiao, S. (2022). Fathoming empirical forecasting competitions' winners. International Journal of Forecasting, 38, 1519-1525;

Forecasting Lab Members