Access and participation research and reports

Durham University Access and Participation Plan: Core Theories of Change (2025–2029)

Abstract

This article outlines the Core Theories of Change (TOCs) underpinning Durham University’s Access and Participation Plan (APP) for 2025–2029. TOCs provide strategic frameworks that map how specific interventions are expected to lead to desired outcomes and long-term impact. Using TASO’s model, nine Core TOCs are presented, aligned with seven intervention strategies targeting pre-16 and post-16 outreach, transition support, disability inclusion, mature learners, ethnicity heritage-specific programmes and belonging. These TOCs offer strategic clarity, guidance for programme design, and support robust evaluation. They are not static and evolve over time with emerging evidence. As the APP progresses, these Core TOCs will evolve into Enhanced TOCs with detailed causal mechanisms and ‘if–then’ logic statements, forming the basis for rigorous evaluation frameworks. This article marks the first formal output of the APP evaluation plan and contributes to sector-wide evidence building on equality of opportunity.